$69K Is the Key, Cowen Maps Out Bitcoin’s Next Big Move

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Bitcoin’s recent market action may seem shaky, but according to crypto analyst Benjamin Cowen, it’s all part of the bigger picture—and the outlook is still bullish.

As the second quarter of 2025 kicks off, Bitcoin has cooled down after its impressive rise earlier this year. The price is now moving between $83,000 and $85,000, as global tensions, interest rate concerns, and trade decisions under President Donald Trump weigh on investor sentiment. Still, there are signs that this could be the start of a healthy consolidation phase.

Cowen, who closely tracks Bitcoin cycles, says the most important level to watch is the 2024 high. As long as Bitcoin stays above that point—even with brief dips or “wicks” below—he believes the current uptrend remains intact. A drop to the low $60,000s could still trigger a strong bounce, possibly pushing the price even higher than where it is now.

He also pointed out that Bitcoin’s growth in this cycle is following a familiar pattern. Compared to previous cycles, returns are smaller—something he calls “diminishing returns.” But that doesn’t mean gains are over. In a best-case scenario, Cowen sees Bitcoin climbing to between $120,000 and $150,000, and maybe even as high as $200,000 if major events—like institutional or government buying—kick in.

The real concern, Cowen says, would be if Bitcoin falls and fails to hold the 2024 high. That could signal what’s known as a “left translated cycle,” meaning the peak of this cycle has already passed. But for now, that scenario hasn’t played out.

Looking back at the 2016–2017 cycle, Cowen reminds us that Bitcoin also briefly dipped below key highs before taking off again. This kind of short-term volatility, he explains, doesn’t necessarily break long-term market structure—unless it turns into sustained downward pressure.