Odds of a Cardano ETF Approval Jumps to 70% as Institutions Accumulate ADA Heavily

The crypto sector is witnessing a remarkable shift as the probability of SEC approval for a spot Cardano (ADA) Exchange-Traded Fund (ETF) by the end of 2025 has escalated dramatically to 70%, according to leading prediction platform Polymarket.

This significant increase from merely 20% earlier this year reflects growing institutional confidence in Cardano’s ecosystem and future potential.

On April 27, crypto analyst Nala shared a Polymarket screenshot highlighting Grayscale‘s strategic repositioning towards Cardano.

“Grayscale is accumulating more Cardano. The chances of an ADA ETF have jumped from 20% to 70%. Is the ADA ETF closer than we think?” She wrote.

Grayscale’s Digital Large Cap Fund (GDLC) has significantly expanded its ADA holdings to over $11 million, representing a calculated re-entry after previously reducing its exposure to the asset. This institutional accumulation, combined with notable whale activity, where major holders acquired over 180 million ADA tokens in March, indicates strong institutional conviction in Cardano’s long-term viability.

That said, Cardano, distinguished by its academically driven research-based development approach and robust Web 3.0 infrastructure, continues to make significant advances in decentralized finance. A primary catalyst behind the ETF speculation is Cardano’s groundbreaking integration with BitcoinOS, a specialized Bitcoin smart contract platform that enables seamless Bitcoin DeFi operations without the need for traditional bridging mechanisms. 

Notably, this technical collaboration unlocks access to Bitcoin’s $1.3 trillion liquidity pool for Cardano’s ecosystem through advanced zero-knowledge cryptographic protocols, ensuring secure transactions without the need for intermediaries. This innovation will position Cardano as a frontrunner in cross-chain functionality, further cementing institutional interest in the platform.

Meanwhile, ADA’s price trajectory has become a focal point of speculation, with several analysts projecting potential valuations around $3, representing a substantial appreciation from its current price of around $0.7054

According to analyst LucksideCrypto, ADA could be on the verge of a major price movement within the next 4–6 weeks, with potential gains of 20– 100% against Bitcoin.

“These next four to six weeks could be very beneficial for ADA compared to the broader crypto market,” LucksideCrypto said on Monday, noting that several key market signals “haven’t appeared in a very long time.” Central to the analyst’s thesis is the current state of Bitcoin dominance, which has been “straight up and to the right for a very long period” but now appears “very toppy” and potentially ready for a breakdown. The stochastic RSI indicator on the weekly chart displays similar patterns to those of previous periods, where Bitcoin dominance dropped from around 61% to 54%, potentially signaling a major shift into altcoins.

The pundit specifically noted that ADA/BTC is currently “heavily oversold” on the weekly timeframe and is creating a bullish flip. According to him, this particular pattern has occurred approximately four times during the current bull market cycle, with each instance preceding ADA gains of 20-100% against Bitcoin within a 4–6-week timeframe.