Buy Bitcoin or Gold in 2025: Which Is the True Safe Haven as Global Trade Crumbles Under Trump’s Tariffs?

President Trump will be announcing and implementing tariffs against 25 countries on April 2, which he has called Liberation Day. These tariffs will change the structure of global trade, as the tariffed countries will likely implement their own countermeasures. The Trump administration has even stated that it might impose heavier tariffs on some countries, escalating even more. As this news came out over the weekend, the risk markets, such as crypto and stocks, fell. S&P 500 dropped 3.5% and the Nasdaq 100 saw a 5% decrease in value. Meanwhile, gold surged 4%, marking an all-time high of $3,150 per ounce.

Gold vs. Bitcoin: The Battle for Safe-Haven Status

As the news caused a market-wide crash, Bitcoin also saw a 6% decrease, going as low as $81,488. As such, this showed that BTC could not yet be used as a hedge against economic crisis. This ignited the discussions about BTC’s value and reliability, as many questioned whether it is better to buy Bitcoin or gold. Although Bitcoin is not yet a reliable hedge, it has a dynamic nature and is still subject to progress. Until recent years, no country would have used this digital asset as a reserve. 

A Shifting Tide: Gold’s Rise and the S&P 500’s Struggle

However, gold is currently one of the best investments as it has recorded higher growth than the S&P 500. This stock bundle has seen a 5% decrease since the start of the year, while gold has seen a 17% increase. However, this is heavily affected by the US economy, as its consumer sentiment has fallen 20 points. This puts the current US consumer sentiment at a level close to the data recorded in 2008. Additionally, as the threat of a global trade war becomes more acute, investors have poured significant capital into gold ETFs.

Graph 1 – Provided by Bloomberg, published on TradingView, April 1, 2025

As highlighted in Graph 1, the gold ETFs have experienced over $12 billion of capital inflows. Based on the reports, this extraordinary development breaks a 5-year record. This is because 2020 marks the last time such a significant amount of capital was injected into the gold funds. Additionally, based on the Matrixport data, the short-term price movement of Bitcoin is still largely shaped by macroeconomic factors. This is because the price movement of BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF has a 70% correlation with the Nasdaq 100’s price movement. 

A $114.5B Drop: Are Bitcoin ETPs Still Just Hype?

If we analyse the Bitcoin ETF data more in detail, we can see the exact correlation. For instance, March 28 marks the date that both stocks and Bitcoin ETFs fell. After these products experienced a week of inflows, they saw a $93 million exodus on this day. Bitcoin ETP’s asset under management also crashed, recording a $114.5 billion drop and marking the lowest level in 2025. Based on such behaviour, we can see that Bitcoin still has not reached a hedge status. However, the current speculative nature of BTC might be changing fast. 

Bitcoin: The New Corporate Reserve Asset

Recent developments show that Bitcoin is increasingly being used as a reserve. As market data from Tipranks shows, now more than 80% of BlackRock’s IBIT is held by corporations or big investors. Additionally, even a megacorporation like BlackRock is holding Bitcoin ETFs. This company uses a 1% to 2% allocation of IBIT into its target allocation portfolios. Additionally, the data shows that now around 5.5% of the total BTC supply is held by public and private corporations. As such, when deciding to buy Bitcoin or gold, you should consider BTC’s growth potential.

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