Analyzing Stan Chart’s Bitcoin Price Prediction: $120K In Q2?

Bitcoin (BTC) price has powered higher in recent weeks, briefly topping $95,000 per coin. The surge has been steep – roughly a 9% gain in the past seven days – setting the stage for bullish Bitcoin price predictions.

In a late-April 2025 report, Standard Chartered’s crypto research team led by Geoff Kendrick now expects Bitcoin to reach about $120,000 in Q2 2025, and as much as $200,000 by the end of the year.

These targets were reiterated even as Bitcoin traded around $93,700 at the time, reflecting the bank’s conviction that the recent rally could continue into summer.

Spring has often been Bitcoin’s strongest season. Data shows that Bitcoin’s average return in Q2 (April–June) has historically been roughly +26.9%), making it the best-performing quarter on average.

In particular, April has tended to be bullish: one analysis finds the average April gain is about +34.7%. For example, between 2016 and 2020 Bitcoin’s price rose each April by about 30% on average.

That said, seasonality is not guaranteed. There have been notable exceptions, such as April 2022 and April 2024, when Bitcoin fell roughly 15–17%.

In short, Bitcoin has closed Q2 in positive territory more often than not, but traders note that past patterns may not repeat every year.

Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin Price Prediction and Track Record

Standard Chartered’s new targets mark the latest in a series of ambitious Bitcoin forecasts from the bank. In September 2021, Geoffrey Kendrick’s team predicted Bitcoin would double and “hit $100,000 by early next year” (2022) and could reach $175,000 longer-term.

By April 2023, the bank raised its view to $100,000 by end-2024 as the crypto “winter” thawed. A few months later (July 2023), Standard Chartered again lifted its price target to $120,000 by end-2024.

Each revision has followed Bitcoin’s strong rallies. Now in April 2025, Kendrick’s note projects $120,000 in Q2 2025 and $200,000 by year-end 2025, roughly doubling from current levels.

These evolving targets suggest the bank’s outlook has grown more bullish as Bitcoin’s price and on-chain demand have recovered.

• Sept. 2021: Predicted Bitcoin would reach ~$100,000 by late 2021/early 2022.
• Apr. 2023: Forecast $100,000 by end-2024 as interest returned.
• Jul. 2023: Raised 2024 target to $120,000 in light of fresh gains.
• Apr. 2025: Targets ~$120,000 in Q2 2025 and $200,000 by end-2025

Each forecast has cited a mix of market drivers and sentiment shifts. As Bitcoin has already rallied sharply this spring, Standard Chartered now sees that momentum carrying well into 2025.

Kendrick highlights several key factors that could propel Bitcoin toward these lofty targets. A convenient way to see these is as a list of catalysts:

Geoffrey Kendrick’s Standard Chartered report outlines key drivers poised to push Bitcoin to new heights, particularly targeting a $120,000 price in Q2 2025.

The analysis pinpoints four catalysts fueling this optimistic forecast. First, investors are shifting capital away from U.S. stocks and bonds toward alternative assets like Bitcoin, a trend Kendrick sees triggering a sharp price surge this spring.

Second, the U.S. Treasury term premium, the extra yield on long-term Treasuries compared to short-term debt, sits at a 12-year high, a level historically tied to Bitcoin rallies.

Third, significant inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, coupled with outflows from gold funds, signal a reallocation from traditional safe havens to crypto, which Kendrick labels a “safe-haven reallocation from gold into BTC,” based on recent ETF data.

Finally, large Bitcoin holders, or “whales” with over 1,000 BTC, have been steadily buying during market dips, such as those tied to tariff news and banking turmoil, reducing available supply and supporting higher prices, according to Kendrick’s findings. These factors collectively underpin Standard Chartered’s bold price prediction.

Together, these drivers paint a picture of rising demand and constrained supply. They echo points from other analyses: for example, a U.S. Treasury term premium at a 12-year high and strong whale buying were among factors making Bitcoin look like a better hedge than gold.

Bitcoin Price Prediction: Broader Market Context

Bitcoin’s outlook also depends on wider macroeconomic conditions. On one hand, Bitcoin’s Spring rally has coincided with easing trade tensions and hopes of lower interest rates.

For example, on April 5, 2025, the White House announced a temporary tariff exemption for Mexico and Canada – news that helped risk assets and crypto lift off.

Global liquidity remains ample, and major Bitcoin ETFs have been drawing inflows. Bloomberg analyst Eric Balchunas noted that Bitcoin was one of the top-performing assets in early 2025, outperforming laggards like U.S. Treasuries.

This suggests many investors see Bitcoin as an attractive risk-on asset or even an inflation hedge as the year begins.

On the other hand, a strong U.S. dollar or rising Treasury yields could temper the advance. Analysts often observe that a surging dollar makes dollar-priced assets like Bitcoin more expensive for foreign buyers.

Indeed, in November 2024 the dollar index hit a 13-month high (around 107.15) even as Bitcoin hit new highs near $99,000.

Some strategists see Bitcoin becoming less correlated with stocks over time, but others warn it remains sensitive to global risk sentiment.

As Singapore-based QCP Capital notes, crypto still tends to move with equities, saying “crypto remains tightly linked to equities, with price action reflecting broader economic shifts.”

In practice, this means that Fed policy shifts, trade news, or sudden drops in liquidity could put the brakes on Bitcoin’s run.

In summary, Standard Chartered’s Bitcoin price prediction rests on a confluence of positive factors: an expected rotation out of U.S. assets, supportive bond-market signals, heavy whale accumulation and robust ETF inflows.

Historical seasonality also offers a constructive backdrop, with Q2 often a strong quarter for crypto. However, outcomes will hinge on whether these drivers outweigh traditional headwinds like dollar strength or higher yields.

As always, forecasts carry uncertainty. Even so, the bank’s analysis provides a clear narrative for why some analysts now see Bitcoin on a steep upward trajectory into 2025.

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