Raoul Pal: “The Wait Is Almost Over” For A Bitcoin Rally

As Bitcoin fluctuates around $82,500, a wave of optimism sweeps over the cryptosphere. Raoul Pal, a former Goldman Sachs executive and key figure in macrofinance, throws a stone in the pond: according to him, Bitcoin is about to emerge from its correction phase to embark on a new ascent. His prediction? An explosion in prices, fueled by a little-known indicator to the general public: global liquidity. But behind these forecasts lie subtle mechanisms, where time, economic data, and market psychology intertwine.

Global liquidity, the invisible fuel of Bitcoin

While Bitcoin is experiencing its worst quarterly close, Raoul Pal is not relying on the usual candlestick charts or technical indicators.

His obsession? The global money supply (M2), this barometer of liquidity circulating in the global economy.

According to his analyses, Bitcoin would follow the fluctuations of this flow with a lag of 10 weeks. Yet, since the end of 2024, the M2 curve has made a remarkable rebound. Conclusion: the awakening of Bitcoin would be imminent.

“The countdown has begun”, he asserts on X, addressing his 1.1 million followers.

An unyielding logic, but not universal. Julien Bittel, head of macro research at GMI, suggests a slightly different time frame: 12 weeks.

For him, the local low of Bitcoin would be this very week, before a V-shaped recovery. Two visions, one scenario: the end of stagnation.

However, a doubt remains. How can a decentralized asset like Bitcoin be so sensitive to centralized liquidity injections? The answer lies in its hybrid status: both a safe haven and a risky asset.

When central banks flood the markets, part of this fresh money inevitably spills into cryptos. A phenomenon amplified by the growing adoption of Bitcoin ETFs, discreet bridges between traditional finance and the crypto ecosystem.

$210,000… and after? Pal’s logarithmic equation

If liquidity sets the tempo, prices dance to a much more ambitious score. Raoul Pal does not mince words: his logarithmic regression model projects a cyclical peak of at least $210,000.

That’s a multiplication by 2.5 compared to current prices. But the most surprising part lies in its high ranges: $412,000, or even $805,000. Numbers that make skeptics smile… and early adopters dream.

This regression channel, a favorite tool of chartists, allows visualizing long-term trends while smoothing out transient volatilities.

Currently, Bitcoin is hovering near the average of the channel (red line). But as Pal reminds us, past bubbles have often seen prices breach one or two standard deviations above this base. A scenario that will depend on the intensity of the next bullish cycle.

One unknown remains: the timing. Because while macro indicators point toward acceleration, crypto markets remember the resounding crashes. The recent drop of 2.25% in 24 hours reminds us that the path to the peaks will be chaotic. For Pal, these corrections are just “normal jolts” in a landscape where global liquidity, boosted by a loosening of financial conditions, will soon regain dominance.